Economic and Market Commentary

PIMCO’s Outlook for Bonds

Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO, discusses rising rates and volatility, where we’re seeing longer-term value, and the potential benefits of higher yields for active fixed income managers.

More from this section

Read Transcript

Footer Overlay: PIMCO provides services only to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized.

Text on screen: Daniel J. Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer

Ivascyn: We’re now in an environment today where returns have been challenged and volatility has been elevated.

So for all of us as investors that can be a challenging period to operate in. We do believe that this volatility is going to persist, and likely persist for several quarters, but with volatility comes opportunity for active asset managers.

TITLE – With volatility comes opportunity for active asset managers:, SUB-TITLE – Higher yields may mean: BULLETS – More income from a bond portfolio, More cushion from negative scenarios, Greater prospect for total return performance

So it feels terrible. It’s been mostly one way over the course of the last several months, but higher yields mean more income from a bond portfolio, higher yields mean more cushion from negative scenarios, and higher yields mean a greater prospect for total return performance if we have these unfortunate events like Covid, like an expansion of the war in Europe, like other negative growth shocks which can certainly happen in this highly uncertain world that we live in.

Images on screen: COVID-19 screening, oil refinery, gas prices, stock market ticker

And looking back through history, there have been other periods where there have been fairly violent selloffs in financial markets, in the fixed income markets, which then led to a period of stability.

We think it makes sense to be on the defensive side, but also acknowledge the fact that higher rates, although painful on the way up, have uncovered or introduced a bit more value in a market where value had been limited for a fairly extended period of time.

Images on screen: European cities


And many regions of the world now have positive yields again after dealing with negative interest rates, Europe being the most obvious example.

Even without taking a strong directional view on interest rates, this heightened volatility, this period where we do expect to continue to see certain segments of the market,

Text on screen: Heightened volatility may provide opportunity to generate incremental return

Images on screen: PIMCO trade floor

even on a daily or weekly basis, overshoot fundamental valuations, there’s a lot of opportunity to generate incremental return.

And then from an absolute sense, although we as a firm still remain a bit cautious regarding interest rate exposure, at least locally, we’re getting to periods now – we’re getting to levels now where longer term valuations are beginning to look quite interesting.

Images on screen: European central banks, wheat harvesting, oil refinery

Again, all of this is predicated on central banks ultimately gaining control of inflation. And we do think ultimately they will gain control of inflation. It’s going to take some time. There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty on the commodities front, especially with war in Europe.

But when you think about yields from a longer term perspective, when we do get back to inflation in a more traditional range, we’re beginning to see some interest in value and we do think investors, despite having a terrible experience more recently, should continue to think about a core holding in higher quality bonds as a source of diversification across an overall asset allocation.

Text on screen: For more insights and information, visit pimco.com

Text on screen: PIMCO

Disclosure


All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Diversification does not ensure against loss. Management risk is the risk that the investment techniques and risk analyses applied by an investment manager will not produce the desired results, and that certain policies or developments may affect the investment techniques available to the manager in connection with managing the strategy.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. | Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660 is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.| PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) in the UK. The services provided by PIMCO Europe Ltd are not available to retail investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser. | PIMCO Europe GmbH (Company No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Germany), PIMCO Europe GmbH Italian Branch (Company No. 10005170963), PIMCO Europe GmbH Irish Branch  (Company No. 909462), PIMCO Europe GmbH UK Branch (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe GmbH Spanish Branch (N.I.F. W2765338E) are authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) (Marie- Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) in Germany in accordance with Section 15 of the German Securities Institutions Act (WpIG).  The Italian Branch, Irish Branch, UK Branch and Spanish Branch are additionally supervised by: (1) Italian Branch: the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act; (2) Irish Branch: the Central Bank of Ireland in accordance with Regulation 43 of the European Union (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2017, as amended; (3) UK Branch: the Financial Conduct Authority; and (4) Spanish Branch: the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) in accordance with obligations stipulated in articles 168 and  203  to 224, as well as obligations contained in Tile V, Section I of the Law on the Securities Market (LSM) and in articles 111, 114 and 117 of Royal Decree 217/2008, respectively. The services provided by PIMCO Europe GmbH are available only to professional clients as defined in Section 67 para. 2 German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). They are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication.| PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registered in Switzerland, Company No. CH-020.4.038.582-2). The services provided by PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH are not available to retail investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser. | PIMCO Asia Pte Ltd (Registration No. 199804652K) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore as a holder of a capital markets services licence and an exempt financial adviser. The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Asia Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission for Types 1, 4 and 9 regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. PIMCO Asia Limited is registered as a cross-border discretionary investment manager with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Korea (Registration No. 08-02-307). The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Investment Management (Shanghai) Limited Unit 3638-39, Phase II Shanghai IFC, 8 Century Avenue, Pilot Free Trade Zone, Shanghai, 200120, China (Unified social credit code: 91310115MA1K41MU72) is registered with Asset Management Association of China as Private Fund Manager (Registration No. P1071502, Type: Other) | PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508, AFSL 246862. This publication has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of investors. Before making an investment decision, investors should obtain professional advice and consider whether the information contained herein is appropriate having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. | PIMCO Japan Ltd, Financial Instruments Business Registration Number is Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 382. PIMCO Japan Ltd is a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. All investments contain risk. There is no guarantee that the principal amount of the investment will be preserved, or that a certain return will be realized; the investment could suffer a loss. All profits and losses incur to the investor. The amounts, maximum amounts and calculation methodologies of each type of fee and expense and their total amounts will vary depending on the investment strategy, the status of investment performance, period of management and outstanding balance of assets and thus such fees and expenses cannot be set forth herein. | PIMCO Taiwan Limited is managed and operated independently. The reference number of business license of the company approved by the competent authority is (110) Jin Guan Tou Gu Xin Zi No. 020. 40F., No.68, Sec. 5, Zhongxiao E. Rd., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 110, Taiwan (R.O.C.). Tel: +886 2 8729-5500. | PIMCO Canada Corp. (199 Bay Street, Suite 2050, Commerce Court Station, P.O. Box 363, Toronto, ON, M5L 1G2) services and products may only be available in certain provinces or territories of Canada and only through dealers authorized for that purpose. | PIMCO Latin America Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima 3477, Torre A, 5° andar São Paulo, Brazil 04538-133. | No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2022, PIMCO.

CMR2022-0408-2119326

Filters: Reset All

Filters

Close Filters Dropdown
  • Tags

    Reset

    Close
  • Category

    Reset

    Bond by Bond
    Careers
    Economic and Market Commentary
    Investment Strategies
    PIMCO Foundation
    PIMCO Education
    View from the Investment Committee
    View From the Trade Floor
    Viewpoints
    Education
    Close
  • Order By

    Reset

    Alphabetical
    Most Recent
    Close
() filters applied

Multimedia Finder

Filter By:
  • Bond by Bond
  • Careers
  • Economic and Market Commentary
  • Investment Strategies
  • PIMCO Education
  • View from the Investment Committee
  • View From the Trade Floor
  • Viewpoints
  • Understanding Investing
  • A
  • B
  • C
  • D
  • F
  • G
  • H
  • I
  • K
  • L
  • M
  • N
  • O
  • P
  • Q
  • R
  • S
  • T
  • W
  • Y
Clear
Tina Adatia
Global and Core Fixed Income Product Strategist
Berdibek Ahmedov
Product Strategist, Global and Real Return
Joshua Anderson
Portfolio Manager, Income and Asset-Backed Securities
Del Anderson
Credit Analyst
Robert Arnott
Founder and Chairman, Research Affiliates
Andrew Balls
CIO Global Fixed Income
Justin Blesy
Asset Allocation Strategist
Meredith Block
ESG Research Analyst
Philippe Bodereau
Portfolio Manager, Global Head of Financial Research
David L. Braun
Head of US Financial Institutions Portfolio Management
Jelle Brons
Portfolio Manager, Global Investment Grade Credit
Nathaniel Brown
Director of the PIMCO Foundation
Erin Browne
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Strategies
Esteban Burbano
Fixed Income Strategist
Grover Burthey
Portfolio Manager, ESG
Libby Cantrill
Public Policy
Stephen Chang
Portfolio Manager, Asia
Devin Chen
Portfolio Manager, Commercial Real Estate
Josh Davis
Global Head of Risk Management
Laura Deneke
Sr. Vice President, Product Strategist
Pramol Dhawan
Head of Emerging Markets Portfolio Management
Joachim Fels
Global Economic Advisor
David Fisher
Co-Head of Strategic Accounts, U.S. Global Wealth Management
Gene Frieda
Global Strategist
Nick Granger
Portfolio Manager, Quantitative Analytics
Adam Gubner
Portfolio Manager, Distressed Debt
Gregory Hall
Head of U.S. Global Wealth Management
David Hammer
Head of Municipal Bond Portfolio Management
Mary Hoppe
Ray Huang
Portfolio Manager, Real Estate
Daniel H. Hyman
Head of Agency MBS Portfolio Management
Daniel J. Ivascyn
Group Chief Investment Officer
Mark R. Kiesel
CIO Global Credit
Erica Kinsella
Product Strategist, ESG Strategies
Kaboo Leung
Christine Long
Head of Retirement Marketing
Nicola Mai
Portfolio Manager, Sovereign Credit Analyst
Raji O. Manasseh
Equity Strategist
Jason Mandinach
Head of Alternative Credit and Private Strategies
Samuel Mary
ESG Research Analyst
Scott A. Mather
CIO U.S. Core and Sustainable Investments
Sean McCarthy
Head of Municipal Credit Research
Kyle McCarthy
Alternative Credit Strategist
Mohit Mittal
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Sector
James Moore
John Mullins
Product Strategist
Alfred T. Murata
Portfolio Manager, Mortgage Credit
John Murray
Portfolio Manager, Commercial Real Estate
John Nersesian
Head of Advisor Education
Roger Nieves
Senior Advisor
Jason Odom
Strategist, Asset Allocation
Rick Pagnani
Head of Insurance-Linked Securities
Sonali Pier
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Sector Credit
William Quinones
Product Strategist
Lupin Rahman
Head of EM Sovereign Credit
Libby Rodney
Steve A. Rodosky
Portfolio Manager, Real Return and Long Duration
Emmanuel Roman
Chief Executive Officer
Manusha Samaraweera
Fixed Income Strategist
Steve Sapra
Client Solutions & Analytics
Jerome M. Schneider
Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management
Marc P. Seidner
CIO Non-traditional Strategies
Emmanuel S. Sharef
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation and Multi Real Asset
Greg E. Sharenow
Portfolio Manager, Commodities and Real Assets
Anmol Sinha
Candice Stack
Head of Client Management, Americas
Kimberley Stafford
Global Head of Product Strategy
Cathy Stahl
Global Head of Marketing
Christian Stracke
Global Head of Credit Research
Geraldine Sundstrom
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation, EMEA
Richard Thaler
Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Behavioral Science at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business
Jessica K. Tom
Senior Credit Analyst
Eve Tournier
Head of European Credit Portfolio Management
Francois Trausch
CEO and CIO, Allianz Real Estate
Jerry Tsai
Quantitative Research Analyst
Megan Walters
Global Head of Research, Allianz Real Estate
Qi Wang
CIO Portfolio Implementation
Jamie Weinstein
Portfolio Manager, Head of Corporate Special Situations
Tiffany Wilding
North American Economist
Andrew T. Wittkop
Portfolio Manager, Treasuries, Agencies, Rates
Nelson Yuan
Chris Brightman
Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Research Affiliates
PIMCO
Ben S. Bernanke
Chair, Global Advisory Board
  • Alphabetical
  • Most Recent
Section : Date : Experts :
Reset All
<