Viewpoints

Emerging Markets Asset Allocation: Investing Into the Upswing

Accelerating global economic growth, abundant liquidity, and attractive relative valuations suggest strong potential returns ahead, warranting a larger allocation toward emerging markets investments.

Young global economic expansions typically fuel strong gains in emerging markets (EM) assets. As the economic cycle moves from recovery into expansion and risk aversion declines, waves of capital generally flow into emerging market assets, weakening the dollar, which further reinforces the capital flow cycle to EM. We believe we have entered such an expansion phase. Although we are vigilantly monitoring the pandemic’s ongoing impacts, we believe that accelerating growth, combined with ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies and attractive relative valuations, should support EM investments for a prolonged period.

From healing to expansion

Cyclical indicators suggest the global economy is swinging into an expansion phase. The global manufacturing PMI – a good proxy for economic activity – has moved above its historical average, and rising prices in commodities and other cyclically sensitive assets have manifested. We believe this trend will continue, supported by an extended period of massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, as many countries likely won’t see a full recovery in output and employment until well past 2021. Importantly, we find that the broad traded-weighted dollar weakens 77% of the time when the global manufacturing PMI reaches this stage. A weaker dollar is a significant booster to EM returns (see Figure 1).

Vaccination campaigns and private sector re-engagement add predictability to the nascent recovery. The confidence boost stemming from the rollout of vaccines will give way to fresh private sector engagement, particularly in areas most affected by the restrictions to mobility. Pent-up demand in relevant sectors of the global economy can give renewed strength and length to the reboot in growth. We think country-specific issues will again be relevant later in the year, but for now these global drivers should take center stage in boosting demand for EM assets.

Figure 1: Emerging markets returns throughout phases of the global growth cycle*

This chart illustrates average monthly emerging market asset class returns throughout the phases of the economic cycle for the last 10 years. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is used as a proxy for economic activity. Specifically, this drawing shows a horizontal line representing the global manufacturing PMI Index rising and falling through the business cycle, with a straight line across the center, representing the average PMI through the cycle of 51.4. Monthly returns of emerging market asset classes are highlighted during four phases of the index:  Quadrant 1: when the PMI is above average and rising—where it is today—returns are among the strongest at up to 2.1% when the U.S. dollar is weakening, though they are low-to-negative when the dollar is rising; when   Quadrant 2: when the PMI is above average and falling, monthly returns have declined to mid-single digits. Quadrant 3: when the PMI is below average and falling, returns in some asset classes fall as low as negative mid-single digits. Quadrant 4: when the PMI is below average and rising, returns are even slightly higher than they are when the PMI is above average and weakening while simultaneously the U.S. is weakening. Asset classes proxies are as follows: MSCI Emerging Local Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Composite, J.P. Morgan Corporate EMBI Composite Index, J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged USD, and J.P. Morgan ELMI+ Index, respectively.

Dollar depreciation could boost EM returns

Currencies are the conduit for easier financial conditions to permeate EM, and dollar cycles tend to be long-lasting affairs (see Figure 2). The U.S. dollar is coming from a period of significant outperformance. Given above-trend broadening global growth, ongoing vaccine rollouts, and a very accommodative Federal Reserve, we believe the next phase of the dollar cycle will likely track its usual post-U.S. recession pattern and depreciate. The prospects for additional fiscal stimulus with a new Democratic Senate majority likely will accelerate this trend.

Figure 2: The U.S. dollar may be at a pivot point

This chart shows the real broad trade-weighted dollar since March 1973. The trade weighted dollar rises and falls in long multi-year spans that can be roughly 7 to 10 years. The index last hit a low in July 2011 at 83.9, climbed from there to 113 in April 2020, and has since declined to 104.0 at 31 December 2020.

We favor local EM assets over external credit

Our asset allocation decisions in emerging markets portfolios typically revolve around contrasting “balance sheet” assets that are largely driven by sovereign debt levels, and “income statement” assets that are more sensitive to nominal growth (see Figure 3). Given our forecast for a global economic expansion and reduced volatility, we see more value in pro-cyclical growth-sensitive assets, namely FX, equities and rates, versus credit.

The timing is attractive, in our view. Positioning in FX, equities and rates is not extended, potentially providing an early-mover advantage. Flows to these parts of the EM complex have been modest if not negative in the last two years. Yet, if history repeats itself, reversals in capital flows will be large and swift, and will more meaningfully impact areas, such as these, that have been out of favor with offshore investors.

Our baseline scenario is not without risks, however. Risks include the Fed tightening prematurely and the dollar strengthening, the expansion being interrupted from slower-than-expected COVID-19 containment, or a tapering of stimulus in China so heavy-handed that it dents expectations for global growth and commodity prices.

Given significant slack in labor markets and subdued inflation risks, we believe monetary and fiscal authorities will continue to act to avoid any undesirable tightening or loss of growth momentum. These global “push” forces should remain primary drivers of EM markets in coming quarters. We anticipate country specific “pull” factors regaining relevance later. Should the Fed tighten sooner than we expect, weaker EMs would normalize monetary and fiscal policies faster as well. To account for these risks and above-average valuations for financial assets in general, we will continue to focus on maintaining liquid and diversified portfolios.

Figure 3: PIMCO emerging market balance sheet vs. income statement framework

This chart shows PIMCO views of the valuations of the four categories of emerging markets assets: local duration, external credit, currencies, and equities. Of the less growth-sensitive balance sheet assets, PIMCO believes external credit is richly valued and local duration has moderate valuations (not expensive, not cheap).  Of the more growth-sensitive income statement assets, equities are richly valued, while foreign currencies appear relatively inexpensive.

Figure 4: PIMCO emerging markets asset allocation preferences

This illustration shows PIMCO’s weighting for each of the four emerging market asset classes. PIMCO is slightly overweight local duration; neutral on external credit; moderately overweight currencies; and slightly overweight equities.

EM FX

Our conviction at this point in the cycle has increased that the demand for safe-haven dollar assets will decline as the global recovery broadens and uncertainty recedes. In turn, we prefer exposure to high-carry EM currencies versus cheaper and more growth-dependent value currencies, which are pricing some degree of idiosyncratic stress. Some of the higher-yielding currencies we like include the Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY), the South African rand (ZAR), and the Mexican peso (MXN). Eventually, we expect a drop in EM FX volatility from currently elevated levels to support higher-beta currencies as risk premiums compress further – providing rotation opportunities as the cycle advances.

EM equities

Levered to the global economy with a high share of cyclical sectors and a negative correlation to a weakening dollar, we believe EM equities have room to continue to appreciate. Although valuations look rich on a historical basis, with the MSCI EM’s forward price-earnings ratio trading at 16x, versus a five-year average closer to 12x, gains from multiple expansion are the norm exiting recessions. Going forward, we expect EPS growth will drive prices. To be sure, coming off six years (2013-2019) of near-zero compounded EPS growth for MSCI EM, we believe the combination of cyclical lift to operating leverage and appreciating currencies should support positive earnings revisions in the quarters ahead. We are reducing our preference for Asian markets, given strong gains since November. Within Asia, we maintain our focus on new economy sectors. But we believe gains will broaden to other regions that have lagged the recent rally and offer more attractive valuations, warranting select exposure to other cyclically oriented sectors in EMEA and Latin America.

Local duration (sovereign debt denominated in local currency)

We believe EM local duration will become a key beneficiary of the strong capital flow cycle toward EM and the weakening dollar that we foresee, and offers both good potential risk-adjusted returns and a diversifier to global rates allocations. Local curves are very steep, providing the opportunity to harvest premium by positioning in shorter maturities.

Room for significant additional rate cuts is limited, but the market is pricing rate normalization paths that are too aggressive, in our view. We think economic slack and strengthening EM currencies will help anchor inflation at low levels, allowing central banks to continue their highly accommodative monetary policies.

Countries that stick to sound fiscal policy paths can see significant curve flattening for long-end maturities. Specifically, we are focusing on five- to seven-year durations in countries where yield curves are steep but anchored by monetary policy, allowing for high real yields associated with fiscal or political contamination to be harvested. South Africa and Peru fall into this category.

Figure 5: Emerging markets 10-year real rates remain attractive vs. domestic markets

This chart shows the average 10-year real-yields of emerging market sovereign bonds relative to real 10-year yields in domestic markets. It runs from the beginning of July 2015 through January 2021. Real yields are calculated by subtracting the expected inflation rate. During this period, the differential between emerging market real yields and domestic market real yields more than doubled from slightly over 2% in July 2015 to more than 4% later that year, before briefly dropping back to less than 3% in 2016. From there, the yield differential steadily climbed and traded in a range of 3.5% to 4%, with a brief spike above 4.5% in mid-2018 and a spike above 5% in March and April 2020. Since April, the real yield differential has tapered off a bit and ended January 2021 at 3.9%.

EM external (denominated in hard currency)

  • Sovereigns: EM sovereign credit remains a natural destination for crossover investors looking for liquid alternatives away from ultra-low rates and rich credit valuations in developed markets. This should continue to support steady inflows into the asset class. Balance sheet deterioration has occurred in EM, but overall debt servicing costs have been relatively stable for key countries. The investment grade segment of the market has retraced to pre-pandemic spread levels, although we still like exposure to certain high quality sovereigns.

    We see more value in higher-yielding names. Although we anticipate lower default rates going forward, the risk of policy mistakes in lower-quality credits has not disappeared, and credit selection will remain a key attribute in driving alpha once the influence of external drivers subside. We have an emphasis on:

    • Core positioning in higher quality and more liquid names
    • Selective participation in new issues, expecting lower supply versus 2020
    • BB-rated credits that entered the COVID-19 crisis with good fundamentals
    • Countries with strong multilateral support
    • Limited exposure to fallen-angel candidates
    • Reducing exposure to significant commodity importers
  • Corporates: EM companies managed to reassert their solid fundamentals following the initial shock to revenues in the first half of 2020. Financial discipline and controlled capital expenditures helped keep leverage ratios contained and net financing needs low. The default rate closed 2020 near 3% and distressed exchanges were limited to service sectors most impacted by COVID-19. We expect the higher weighing toward investment grade and the lower duration of the J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI) benchmark to continue to anchor spreads.

    Corporates have outperformed sovereign benchmarks and their relative valuations are now converging to the five-year average. Therefore, we advocate a more selective approach focusing on BBB and BB names in relatively stable countries. Low local interest rates should continue to offer EM corporates opportunities to replace hard currency debt with local currency debt, further improving the supply-demand technical position for some issuers in the CEMBI. Sectors we favor include Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEEMEA) and Asian technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), dominant EM financials, low-cost commodity exporters, and EM REITs. We believe LatAm is the most vulnerable region and are also watchful of large issuance coming from Asia.

Final thought

Global factors have aligned favorably for emerging markets assets. We find that gains tend to be the strongest in the early parts of a young expansion when financial conditions remain ultra-accommodative and the dollar weakens. We believe these trends have good staying power and advocate higher allocations to EM assets. On a risk-adjusted basis, we prefer local assets to external credit. Later on in the cycle, differentiation and dispersion of returns will emerge again – stressing the need to keep portfolios diversified, a core pillar to PIMCO’s rigorous investment process.

To learn more about the confluence of dynamics poised to accelerate global capital flows to emerging markets, read, Tail Winds Provide Lift for Emerging Markets Investments.

The Author

Pramol Dhawan

Head of Emerging Markets Portfolio Management

Vinicius Silva

Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets

Related

Disclosures

London
PIMCO Europe Ltd
11 Baker Street
London W1U 3AH, England
+44 (0) 20 3640 1000

Milan
PIMCO Europe Ltd - Italy
Corso Matteotti 8
20121 Milan, Italy
+39 02 9475 5400

Munich
PIMCO Deutschland GmbH
Seidlstraße 24-24a
80335 Munich, Germany
+49 (0) 89 26209 6000

Zurich
PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH
Brandschenkestrasse 41
8002 Zurich, Switzerland
Tel: + 41 44 512 49 10


PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe Ltd - Italy (Company No. 07533910969) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS) in the UK. The Italy branch is additionally regulated by the CONSOB in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act. PIMCO Europe Ltd services and products are available only to professional clients as defined in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook and are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. | PIMCO Deutschland GmbH (Company No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Germany) and PIMCO Deutschland GmbH Swedish Branch (SCRO Reg. No. 516410-9190) are  authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) (Marie- Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) in Germany in accordance with Section 32 of the German Banking Act (KWG). The Swedish Branch is additionally supervised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) in accordance with Chapter 25 Sections 12-14 of the Swedish Securities Markets Act. he services provided by PIMCO Deutschland GmbH are available only to professional clients as defined in Section 31a para. 2 German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). They are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. | PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registered in Switzerland, Company No. CH-020.4.038.582-2), Brandschenkestrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, Tel: + 41 44 512 49 10. The services and products provided by PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser.

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Currency rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time and may reduce the returns of a portfolio. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed.

Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. There is no guarantee that results will be achieved.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

The terms “cheap” and “rich” as used herein generally refer to a security or asset class that is deemed to be substantially under- or overpriced compared to both its historical average as well as to the investment manager’s future expectations. There is no guarantee of future results or that a security’s valuation will ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2021, PIMCO.

CMR2021-0203-1509891

Tail Winds Provide Lift for Emerging Markets Investments
XDismiss Next Article

CH

unidentified

[change]

Subscribe
Please input a valid email address.